GLOBAL RESPONSE
Muslim Brotherhood leaders have outrightly rejected the military ousting of Morsi and demanded the immediate release of the deposed leader. The Brotherhood has found diplomatic support from Nigeria, African Union, Turkey and Yemen, where there have been demands that the will of the people of Egypt should be respected. Morsi himself issued a statement that his government is the only legitimate government in Egypt. He called for negotiations with other political and social groups in Egypt. The military, which has banned the Brotherhood’s television channel, has kept Morsi under arrest. There are fears that the Muslim Brotherhood may embark on violent resistance to the new development.
But the United States (US) and its allies have been cautious in their response to the events in Cairo-U.S president Barak Obama simply asked for the handing over of power to a democratically elected government. Japan neither condemned nor supported the political development in Egypt.
The European Union and United Nations called for caution as events in that country unfolded. The African Union (AU) has expelled Egypt from the regional body.
The Salafis group and Tamarod movement, whose street protests inspired the military to sweep Morsi out of power have expectedly, backed the changes.
MILITARY FACTOR
Since the Gamal Abdul Nasser’s coup that toppled King Farouq, 60 years ago, the Egyptian military has remained the most powerful political institution in the country.
So when General Abdul Fattah Al- Sisi asked Morsi to arrest the crisis plaguing the country, it was only a timely warning which the stubborn president refused to heed; of course, from the days of the Pharaohs, Egyptian leaders are known to be stubborn. But the good thing about the drama playing out in Cairo is that the military may have decided to play down its role and manipulate the system from behind the scene.
The military sees its role as that of preserving the country’s stability, but, more importantly, securing its own position and privileges. The events in Egypt show how easily the demand for social change could easily degenerate into mob-rule, especially when those in power fail to address the causes of social discontent that inspire street protests.
The truth remains that if an elected government like Morsi’s could not arrest the social, political and economic drift in Egypt, it is doubtful if Mansour’s handpicked interim government could do much.
ROAD MAP
In announcing the sacking of Morsi, Gen Abdel Fattah al-Sisi told the world that the democratically elected government had failed to meet the aspirations of the people.
Top on the list of the road map is the proposal for a review of the controversial constitution which eroded the secular status of Egypt. The Mansour interim government is also charged with organizing legislative and presidential elections. The new government has promised press freedom, with the enactment of professional code of practice.
Mansour is expected to carry out a review of the suspended constitution. He is also expected to set up a transitional council made up of the army, the youths, the Coptic Christians and opposition parties. One of the earliest supporters of the changes in government is Mohammed El-Barradi, an opposition leader and the former head of U.N nuclear watchdog (IAEA).
Also supporting the changes are the pope of Egypt’s Coptic Christians, an orthodox Christian group in Egypt. The Tamarod is the rebel youth group which began the massing of opponents of Morsi’s government at Tahrir Square, Cairo in late June.
CHALLENGES
Whether the military-backed regime change in Egypt will bring about the desired democratic renewal in the North African country is the nightmare facing Mansour, the interim leader. But for Nigeria and other government in sub-Saharan Africa who may have deluded themselves that military takeover of power from a democratically elected government is over, the unfolding political drama in Egypt is more than a nightmare.
Morsi, who rode to power last year in a controversial election, was warned about the resolve of the Arab spring styled protest that engulfed Egypt barely one year after the election of the country’s first democratic government.
Tahrir square, the archetypal theatre of Egypt’s power struggle, is certain to see more outpouring of popular emotions as both supporters and opponents of Morsi government pitch for support. Nobody should expect the Muslim Brotherhood to back off easily.
POLITICAL HUBRIS
Ousted Egyptian President, Mohamed Morsi
The Muslim Brotherhood, still in a war mood, was unequivocal in its description of the events of Wednesday, as a military coup d’tat but for the opposition group, made up of young people, Coptic Christians, liberal political elites and women, the ouster of the Morsi administration and its anachronistic political agenda is an opportunity for a fresh beginning.
In between the two camps, there is this eerie feeling that Egypt’s political land-scape will remain uncertain, volatile and unstable in the near future.
First, the military swore in Mansour as the interim president and gave him the powers to make constructional declaration. The 67-year-old was appointed a judge of the SCC by former President Hosni Mubarak who was swept out of office in February 2011.
Mansour was appointed as the SCC Chief Justice by Morsi last year but the court has not been favourable to the ousted leader’s political agenda to Islamize Egypt’s political system.
The SCC upheld Morsi’s narrow and controversial electoral victory in the presidential election. It also upheld the controversial referendum on the new constitution drafted by the pro-Islamic panel set up by Morsi.
DOMINO-EFFECT
Will the regime change in Egypt have domino-effect on Africa and the Arab world? That is the potent danger that looms large in the days ahead especially in the continent where the ruling political elite have bastardised the concept of liberal democracy.
Analysts argue that Egypt’s crisis goes much deeper than the recent political chaos. With the leader of the SCC taking over the presidency at the behest of the military, the new government will likely represent a coalition of interests facing many of the same challenges that brought about Morsi’s downfall. Egypt’s population has grown well beyond the means of the state to support its needs, and even a strong state will struggle to ensure sufficient supplies of basic staples, particularly fuel and wheat.
ECONOMIC FACTOR
Underlying the question of what political structure will emerge from from on-going crisis, the fundamental fact is that Egypt is running out of money. Dwindling foreign reserves point to a negative balance of payments that is sapping the central bank resources. At the same time, Egypt’s reliance on foreign supplies of fuel and wheat is only growing. Government fuel subsidies are an enormous burden on state finances.
The second major challenge stems from Egypt’s vulnerability to international food markets though dire warnings of food shortages have been frequent in the media. . Bread is a staple of the Egyptian diet, and Egypt relies on imports for more than half of its wheat consumption. Although farmland within Egypt is increasingly dedicated to growing wheat, there is simply not enough arable land for Egypt to feed its population.
Although Egypt is a vast country geographically, most of its land is uninhabitable desert. Population growth is accelerating in Egypt’s densely packed urban centers, threatening to worsen these underlying challenges. Population growth in 2012 hit its highest levels since 1991, reaching 32 births per 1,000 people and bringing the country’s population to 84 million, according to initial government estimates.
This represents an increase of 50 percent from 1990, when the population was just 56 million. Egypt’s fertility rate is currently 2.9 children per woman and is expected to remain above the replacement ratio of 2.1 for at least the next two decades. As a result, the United Nations projects the Egyptian population to exceed 100 million by 2030. This means that Egypt will have a growing pool of young people of working age in the coming decades, creating substantial challenges for the Egyptian state to provide them with economic opportunities, or at the least sufficient basic goods.
Ousted Egyptian leader Mubarak faced similar problems, and growing poverty and joblessness are arguably among the root causes of the uprising in 2011 that unseated him. The wave of protests that challenged Morsi, who became the first democratically elected president in the country’s history, should be understood as a continuation of this swelling trend.
While Egypt has been able to secure some limited funding from regional players such as Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Libya, it remains locked in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund over some broader, more sustainable financial relief. It is possible that the new government will find a level of stability that the increasingly isolated Muslim Brotherhood leadership was unable to sustain in the face of rising disputes with former coalition partners and a firmly obstructionist judiciary.
However, the military’s decision to unseat Morsi underlined the instability inherent in Egypt’s political system and may make it even more difficult for Egypt to return to the good graces of financial markets or Western powers. In any case, mounting demographic and economic pressures mean that the job of managing Egypt’s economic challenges will become incrementally more difficult with each passing year and for each faction that occupies the presidential palace.
Source: Vanguard
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