6 Jul 2013

News: Atiku and his forecast on South-West


Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar is indeed a politician in all its ramifications. The Turaki Adamawa (his traditional title) has not ceased to amaze me in the way he handles shock and betrayal. I fear Atiku may be experiencing high blood pressure at present (though I have no way of knowing whether he does or doesn’t), judging by the way and manner some influential politicians who wine and dine with him turn round to betray him when it matters most.
Atiku’s presidential aspiration dates back to 1992 and each time he seemed so close to the coveted seat, he would later emerge so far away in the end. In 2011 for instance, the same Northern governors who urged him to again throw his hat into the presidential ring ditched him at Eagle Square in Abuja. And Atiku still maintains his relationship with some of these governors as if nothing had happened.

The former Vee pee knows the dictionary meaning of the word betrayal. So when he spoke recently on the South-west politics and the dwindling fortune of the Peoples Democratic Party in the zone, he knew well what he was talking about. He says only one explanation can account for the party’s dismal performance in the zone – betrayal. In explaining the rather easy victory the party obtained in the 2011 presidential elections in all but one of the states in the region (Osun), Atiku said it was easy to conclude that the party negotiated the presidential election with zonal leaders at the expense of the gubernatorial and legislative votes. Hear the former Vee pee in a statement last week: “It still remains a paradox to me how the presidential candidate of the party would win massively in all but one state in the South-west, yet the party failed to produce a single state governor in the region and could only produce 18 state assembly members in the same election.” The statement was prepared ahead of the forthcoming zonal congress of the party in the South-west, which is in a dilemma at present over how to handle the office of the party’s National Secretary allotted to the zone. “My experience in politics tells me that this paradox can only be explained in one way, that the leadership of the party must have abandoned the party and negotiated the victory of the President at the expense of the party.”

Atiku seemed to get the prognosis somewhat right, but his analysis failed to put the development in its right context, carefully forgetting to point out that intra-party crisis, which bedevilled PDP in some states and the goodwill enjoyed at the time by President Jonathan also played crucial parts in the outcome of the poll. Yes, the PDP presidential candidate in the 2011, President Jonathan, won massively in the South-west except in Osun State, while the same party failed to produce a single state governor in the region. Truth is the loss of the governorship seats in Ekiti, Osun and Ondo through court declarations on the 2007 election in the affected states had left the PDP gasping for breath and the party had become rudderless in the zone leading to the 2011 election. In Ogun, the intra-party crisis, which bedevilled PDP and evident in its former governor, Otunba Gbenga Daniel, forming a new party, PPN, and sponsoring a candidate to run against the PDP, literally meant they had handed over the governorship to Action Congress of Nigeria’s Senator Ibikunle Amosun. In Oyo, former governor Adebayo Alao-Akala was almost set to break the re-election jinx in the state until he went into an avoidable conflict with a top traditional ruler in the state and of course that, coupled with the rising profile of the Accord Party then floated by his former boss, ex-governor Rashidi Ladoja, all helped to end his political flight. Meanwhile, Lagos, on its part, has since 1999 remained impregnable for PDP.

Some ACN leaders seemed to have cut a deal to deliver the zone to President Jonathan after a late night meeting in Lagos, following which they ditched their presidential candidate, former EFCC boss Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, for Jonathan. Osun broke away from that alleged pact as the ACN Governor Rauf Aregbesola and his supporters were eager to demonstrate that its victory at the court was no fluke and was a true reflection of its electoral support in the state. But more importantly, another factor that influenced the presidential vote in the South-west was the tremendous goodwill then enjoyed by President Jonathan to the extent that in most parts of the zone, the people were voting for his person and not his party. But what has happened to that goodwill now?

To remedy the poor standing of the party in the zone, Atiku called for transparency in the application of party rules and the abandonment of the divide and rule policy that has often characterised party affairs. “Recent events have shown that the leadership of the party has demonstrated insufficient sincerity in resolving the numerous crises, which are pitching the party members against themselves. Political manoeuvring that relies on the politics of patronage and arbitrary application of sanctions will not sustain the popular will of the people through which the party can recover the lost ground.” I cannot agree less with the former vice-president on this. I think going forward, if it’s desirous of making any serious impact in the zone, PDP must resolve its various crises, put its house in order and bring aggrieved leaders and stalwarts back to its fold. The party must ensure that only popular candidates are presented for future elections in the zone.

The Joke about 3,000 Pound UK Visa Bond

Thank God UK Prime Minister David Cameron has applied the break on the 3,000 pound visa bond for nationals of Nigeria and a few other countries seeking to visit the United Kingdom. For the life of me, I found it difficult to see how the bond was going to solve the immigration problem it was designed to tackle in the first instance. The bond would mean, in my view, that the British authorities have decided to sell not just the entry visas but UK residency also to the highest bidders, to those who can afford the visa bond, because those desperate to enter the UK and not return to their respective countries would find the money and circumvent the bond’s original intention. Except Britain wants to make some extra income from external sources, as it seems to be the case with this visa bond, methinks the sensible thing to do is to deal with the individual cases of the visa applicants on their merits, as it is the case at present. Immigration issues just won’t go away and Britain and indeed other countries must keep working at it, but not by outright sale of its entry visas and residency, as the bond seemed to suggest.

I cannot agree less with Sarah Rapson, the boss of Britain’s new immigration body, who believes she can “never finish the job”. The UK Border Agency was split into two earlier this year with Rapson’s department focusing on Visa System and another authority dealing with Immigration Law Enforcement. Appearing before the Home Affairs Select Committee, Rapson had said the UK’s chaotic visa processing system would never be fixed.

Political Observatory

Isa Yuguda’s Recant

I don’t think anyone needed Governor Isa Yuguda’s decision or that of Benue State Governor Gabriel Suswam to quit the Northern State Governors’ Forum over the outcome of the recent Nigerian Governors’ Forum election, to know the regional interest expected to be propagated by the NSGF and the peer review expected of the NGF members to engender development across the states had given way to individual interest. So we don’t need Yuguda’s announcement last week that he was returning to the forum to convince us all is now well with the NSGF. Both NSGF and NGF should return to the original objectives behind their formation, which certainly do not consist in their members engaging in unnecessary sentiments or playing politics with joining or quitting the forums. Yuguda said he had chosen to return to the forum “after given fair considerations to appeals made by Northern elders for him to eschew sentiments and give fair representation to the North”. After the May 24 NGF election, the same man had said he would not attend the Northern Governors’ meeting again for the remainder of his tenure, lamenting the alleged volte-face by some Northern governors over Governor Jonah Jang. “I want any Northern governor to come out and say “yes, I voted at the NGF election and I voted against Jang”. I will then ask him why after sitting with me in the Northern governors’ meeting and agreeing on a consensus candidate, after saying Shema and I should withdraw for Jang, he then went and voted against Jang. I would like to know why,” he had said.

Source: ThisdayLive

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